Retail CFOs don't doubt their team's capability. They doubt the system their team works inside. By the time Finance has a clear picture, the business has already moved on, and no amount of extra effort closes that gap. On 17 September we put that problem to five people who deal with it for a living. Both sessions are below.
What came out of it
Building your own tool is easy now. The first 80% takes a weekend. The last 20% is where the knowledge you don't have starts to matter. Sales rising while cash falls usually starts upstream, in promotions and in inventory bought ahead of them. Most retail organizations run two cash forecasts, in two departments, on two horizons, built on different underlying drivers.
What we covered
Session 1: Buy or Build? AI-powered cashflow forecasting in retail
Ravi Santokhi opened with a cash flow model he built himself over a weekend. Direct and indirect method side by side, drivers exposed so you can push them and watch the result. Then he said what it actually is: an HTML file running locally on his laptop, roughly 10 to 20% of a product. Paul Damen, co-founder of Rockfeather, drew the line that matters. The first 80% is easy now. The last 20% is access control, audit trails and other people's financial data, and that is where bought software earns its price. Moderated by Jeroen Beentjes.
Session 2: Sales Up. Cash Down. What Happened?
Robbin van Wijk named the driver that does most of the damage: promotions. Inventory gets bought ahead, the promotion lands only partly, margin comes in lower than planned, and the cash effect turns up in the tail, outside the month the promotion gets judged in. From there the panel took apart why most retailers carry two cash forecasts that disagree. Ravi Santokhi on the driver chain behind them, Rogier Louter on why a timely forecast beats a detailed one, and Giannis Kotsakiachidis of Palm on treasury's version of the same problem, which turns out to be a logistics problem. Moderated by Jeroen Beentjes. One anonymized composite case throughout. No client named, by design.
Built for Finance leaders in retail
Written for CFOs, Finance Directors, Heads of FP&A and Directors Business Control who carry margin, cash and forecasting accuracy, in Finance, business control, financial systems or treasury.
Frequently asked questions
Why can sales go up while cash goes down in retail?
Usually because of what happened upstream. Inventory bought ahead of a promotion ties up cash, and if the promotion lands only partly or margin comes in lower than planned, the cash effect shows up after the sales figure already looks good. It lives in the tail of the promotion, outside the week or month it normally gets evaluated in.
What is the difference between direct and indirect cash forecasting?
Direct forecasting works from actual cash movements, receipts and payments, and typically runs six to eight weeks out. Indirect works from the driver chain of volumes, mix and margin, and can run 13 weeks or an 18-month rolling horizon. Retail Finance teams need both, and the two need the same underlying drivers.
Should we build our own forecasting tool or buy one?
Building is fast enough now that the first 80% takes days, and a self-built prototype is an excellent way to specify what you actually want. The last 20%, covering access control, audit trails, data ingestion and concurrent users, is where bought software earns its price, along with a party you can hold accountable when something breaks.
How detailed should a cash forecast be?
As detailed as the level at which you actually steer, and no further. A less detailed forecast delivered in time to act on beats a complete one that arrives after the decision window closed. If a forecast is inaccurate, knowing why matters more than closing the gap, provided the driver behind it is one you can influence.
Who should own the cash forecast in a retail organization?
Finance can orchestrate it, whether that sits with business control, financial control or treasury. What matters is that responsibilities are defined and every relevant department is genuinely involved. Integrated, shared KPIs are what make that stick. When each department is measured only on its own numbers, two forecasts drift apart and the CFO becomes the only person holding both.
